Today's post offers my forecast for Canadian mortgage rates in 2019. (Spoiler alert: I expect that rates are headed lower, but be careful what you wish for.)
The U.S. Federal Reserve is widely expected to hike its policy rate by another 0.25% when it meets this Wednesday. The question that is being actively debated is whether it will also adopt more dovish language in its forward guidance (and the answer could impact Canadian mortgage rates).
Six weeks ago the BoC warned that higher rates were imminent. Much has changed since then. Will the Bank pivot when it meets this Wednesday? (Hint: It should)
This week the contrarian in me challenges the notion that choosing a fixed mortgage rate over its variable equivalent is a no brainer in the current environment.
The Bank of Canada expects that it will have to raise its policy rate to keep inflation near its 2% target, but our recent economic data imply otherwise.
The Bank of Canada wants to keep raising its policy rate but says that it will be data dependent. Our latest wage data may test the veracity of that claim in short order.