Our regulators are right to be concerned about our record-high household debt levels, and more specifically, about the continued rise in Canadian mortgage debt outstanding. With mortgage rates at record lows, everyone can afford to borrow more, and when ultra-cheap borrowing costs are combined with housing markets where there is much more demand than supply, prices rise quickly. Over time, rising prices and rising mortgage debt levels feed each other in a self-reinforcing cycle, especially in places like Vancouver and Toronto, where demand has outpaced supply for some time. The longer this continues, the greater the risk that borrowers will not be able to afford their mortgages at renewal. To their credit, the majority of borrowers I work with are well aware of the risk that mortgage rates […]

Why Last Week Was an Important One for Future Canadian Mortgage Rates - Monday Morning Interest Rate Update (September 26, 2016)

The Bank of Canada (BoC) left its overnight rate unchanged last week, as was widely expected. Some market watchers had speculated that the Bank might actually cut its policy rate in response to the recent worsening in our economic data, but the BoC’s ongoing concerns about rising household imbalances make a near-term policy-rate drop unlikely in all but the most extreme circumstances (for the reasons I outlined in this recent post).

The U.S. Federal Reserve has sounded increasingly hawkish of late, with its members repeatedly raising the prospect of a rate hike in either September or December of this year. Tough talk from the Fed is nothing new, but there may be some new thinking behind it now (more on that in a minute).

The (U.S.) Elephant’s Latest Twitches and Grunts - Monday Morning Interest Rate Update (August 29, 2016)

Five of My Most Read Posts In Case You Missed Them the First Time - Monday Morning Interest Rate Update (August 22, 2016)