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May 29, 2017

The Bank of Canada Warns … and Waits

The Bank of Canada (BoC) held its policy rate steady last week, as was universally expected, and it also issued a statement that outlined its current view of how both domestic and foreign forces are impacting our economic momentum. The Bank knows that its words are carefully parsed, and in today’s post I’ll highlight the key phrases that it used in its latest statement and offer my take on the implications for our mortgage rates.
May 23, 2017

Canadian Mortgage Rates Explained: Why a Smaller Down Payment Comes with a Lower Mortgage Rate

Did you know that home buyers who make down payments of less than 20% of their purchase price have access to lower mortgage rates than buyers who put down more than that? This comes as a surprise to many borrowers. After all, doesn’t loan risk decrease as the down payment increases? Why should borrowers who have less skin in the game enjoy lower rates?
May 8, 2017

The Latest Canada and U.S. Employment Data Raise the Same Vexing Question

We received the latest Canadian and U.S. employment data last week. The Canadian economy added only 3,200 new jobs last month, which was below the 10,000 new jobs that the consensus had been expecting. While the latest headline number disappointed, the long-term trends for our job growth are still robust (we have averaged 22,000 new jobs over the past twelve months).
May 1, 2017

Is Your Mortgage Lender About To Go Bust?

As last week's debacle at Home Capital Group was unfolding several of my clients who had borrowed from other non Big-Five bank lenders called me to ask if their lender was now in danger of going bust and wondering what, if anything, they should do. In today’s post I’ll provide a summary of the clear message I gave to them, and include my take on five key questions relating to last week’s events.
April 24, 2017

Five Factors That Are Now Pushing Canadian Bond Yields Lower

We have now entered a period of rising uncertainty and at times like this, money flows into safe-haven assets like Government of Canada (GoC) bonds as the return of one’s capital becomes a more pressing concern than the return on one’s capital. That rise in demand should help keep GoC bond yields, and the fixed-mortgage rates they are priced on, at today’s ultra-low levels. Today's post explains.
April 17, 2017

What the Bank of Canada Thinks of the Recent Surge in Our Economic Momentum

The recent surge in Canadian GDP growth has fueled speculation that the Bank of Canada may begin to raise interest rates sooner than expected. Today’s post takes a detailed look at the Bank’s most recent assessment of our economy's health and offers my take on the implications for both our fixed and variable mortgage rates.
April 10, 2017

Why Haven’t Low Unemployment Rates Led to Rising Inflation?

Last week we received the latest Canadian and U.S. employment reports and the data continue to confound market watchers. The unemployment rates in both countries are at levels that should be pushing average incomes higher as the demand for labour outstrips its supply, but that isn’t happening. Instead, low unemployment levels in both countries have corresponded with wage increases that are hovering close to the overall level of price inflation. Today's post offers some insight into the cause of this conundrum.